Farm & Food Care
African swine fever (ASF) has spread to 72 countries and shows no signs of slowing down.
Brett Stuart, president of Global AgriTrends, delivered a stark assessment of the disease's global trajectory at World Pork Expo on June 3 in Des Moines, Iowa, making clear that no country — including the United States — is immune to risk.
"It is the boogeyman under the bed for all of us," Stuart told attendees. "No one should sleep well at night worrying about ASF."
Here are five reasons he says the global pork industry must remain on high alert.
- The disease defies geographic logic. ASF is now present in 72 countries across Europe, Asia and Africa, and is still active on the island of Hispaniola. No one has been able to explain how the virus crossed the Atlantic from Europe to Haiti — a sobering reminder that an ocean is not a reliable barrier.
- Spain's outbreak threatens the heart of European pork production. Spain, the largest pork producer in Europe and the second-largest pork exporter in the world, confirmed its first ASF cases last November. With more than 240 cases recorded and a containment circle expanding about a mile per month, the outbreak is moving toward Catalonia — a region that accounts for 42% of the country's pork production.
- Market consequences arrive immediately and linger. Spanish hog prices fell 23% following the initial ASF confirmation, dropping the country from the highest-priced to the lowest-priced hog market in Europe. The EU Commission now forecasts a 1% annual decline in the European swine herd over the next decade.
- Regionalization agreements can make or break export markets. Japan refused to regionalize ASF and closed its market to Spain entirely. By contrast, China, South Korea and the Philippines have agreed to regionalize, allowing imports from ASF-free regions of Spain. Stuart said the U.S. should be pushing hard for similar agreements now — before a domestic case forces the conversation.
- Biosecurity investments are necessary but not sufficient. Stuart acknowledged the industry and government have committed significant resources to biosecurity. But ASF's behavior in Spain — jumping France entirely and landing directly in Spain, then breaching containment zones despite military deployment and netting — demonstrates that the virus can outmaneuver even well-funded, well-organized response efforts.
