Russia’s wheat harvest is expected to decline to 83 million tons (mt) this year, down from 92.8 mt in 2023, according to a Reuters report.
This year’s decline is due to frost and drought, and next year’s outlook is also lower. Russia harvested a record 104.2 mt in 2022.
Russia has been exporting wheat at a near-record pace in recent months, but exports are expected to slow due to a bad harvest and export curbs aimed at containing domestic price growth, including an expected cut in export quota by two-thirds from January 2025, Reuters reported.
After losses last year, Russian farmers said they are switching from wheat to more profitable crops, such as peas, lentils or sunflowers.
Russia overtook Canada this year as the top exporter of peas to China while regulators in India, the leading importer of lentils, gave a green light to Russian imports, Reuters said.
"The profitability of grain crops is approaching zero,” Dmitry Garnov, CEO of Rostagro Group, which owns land in the Penza and Saratov regions around the Volga River, told Reuters. “The company has reduced the volume of winter wheat sowing by 30%. There are two drivers now — soybeans and sunflower.”
The United States Department of Agriculture’s November 2024 World Agricultural Production report showed an 11% decline in Russia’s wheat production from last year, with yield estimated at 2.91 tons per hectare, down slightly from the previous month and 8% from last year.
