Cost of HPAI to dairy farmers may exceed US government aid

Insufficient government assistance could increase the spread of disease as farmers weigh costs and benefits of biosecurity, researcher says.

June 24, 2026

H5N1 avian influenza virus particle illustration with red text label

JegasRa | BigStock.com

A worst-case outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle could cost nearly 1% of the total gross domestic product of the United States, according to analysis by international researchers.

More realistic models — based on the 2024 HPAI outbreak that affected 13 U.S. states — put the cost around .06% of U.S. GDP, with dairy sector productivity down 3.4%. Dairy product prices could increase as much as 5.25% as a result of another outbreak on par with 2024, according to the research, which was led by Imperial College London.

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