University of Illinois agricultural economist says consumption, USDA projections should be close
Forecasts for the U.S. corn and soybean markets are expected to be increased beyond the already large production outlooks in the October 10 Crop Production report, according to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good.
“Larger crop expectations stem from expectations for higher yield forecasts, with some disagreement about the prospects for changes in acreage estimates. The implication of large crops for the magnitude of year-ending stocks obviously depends on the consumption response,” Good said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected 2014-15 marketing year exports for corn at 1.75 billion bushels, 175 million less than last year. The decline reflects an expected decline in world trade, as opposed to a loss of market share.
As of September 11, 513.3 million bushels of U.S. corn had been sold for export. That is 7 million bushels less than a year earlier. Sales to China are down by 122 million bushels, but larger to Japan and several other countries including Colombia.
“Export inspections during the first three-and-a-half weeks of the marketing year were about twice as large as in the same period last year. The variation in the seasonal pattern of both export sales and shipments from year to year, however, means that early-season activity is not always a good indicator of marketing-year export demand. Still, the current pace of export activity is encouraging,” Good said.
Marketing year exports of U.S. soybeans are projected at 1.7 billion bushels, 55 million bushels more than last year. As of September 11, 935.7 million bushels of U.S. soybeans had been sold for export, 95 million more than a year ago.
Good says current indicators of corn and soybean consumption do not point to 2014-15 marketing year consumption that would deviate much from USDA projections.