The global pork industry in 2026 will see uneven production growth while trade patterns continue to shift, according to a recent RaboResearch report. Several factors will affect global supply, including biosecurity, disease pressures, relatively high construction costs and trade restrictions. Trade policy changes in major countries will continue to reshuffle trade flows in the coming year. The focus will be on productivity, cost reduction and cautious expansion.
Production to rise in first half, then decline
Global production is expected to increase in the first half of the year, driven by growth across major producing countries. RaboResearch expects modest growth in the U.S., EU, and China in the first half, and steady growth in Brazil.
“The driving forces for growth vary by region,” said Chenjun Pan, senior analyst – animal protein for RaboResearch. “Productivity improvements weigh more than previously in the U.S., China, the EU and Brazil, while the large herd size is another main cause of output growth for China. Production in 2H 2026 is expected to slow down and even decline, largely driven by the herd reduction in China and Spain. In China, producers scale back to rebalance, while Spain faces ASF-related trade constraints that lead to herd cuts.”
Trade is expected to remain volatile due to policy changes
Global pork trade showed an uneven performance in 2025, as Brazil recorded 12% export growth, while other key exporting countries, such as the U.S. and Canada, saw single-digit declines.
Into 2026, major importing countries, including China and Mexico, are adjusting import policies. Mexico will introduce import quota to non-FTA suppliers and launch anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into U.S. pork, while China imposes anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports.
Japan and the Philippines, major importers, still ban Spanish pork due to African swine fever (ASF) concerns. All these developments suggest trade volatility will continue in 2026.
Herd health remains a challenge in 2026
ASF continues to spread in Vietnam and the Philippines, hindering local production recovery. Although ASF has not affected the domestic herd in Spain, the industry faces increased pressure from stricter biosecurity and disease control measures. Porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome (PRRS) continues to weigh on production in the U.S. and Mexico.
