Animal protein markets are being pulled in multiple directions by tight red meat supplies, persistent disease threats, an uneven consumer and a shifting trade landscape, according to Christine McCracken, executive director, animal proteins at Rabobank.
McCracken, who spoke July 28 at the 2026 Chicken Marketing Summit in Palm Harbor, Florida, said supply and demand imbalances across beef, pork and poultry are creating opportunity and risk for the chicken industry heading into next year.
Animal protein production
Cattle supplies in the United States have fallen to their lowest level in decades even as beef availability has declined only modestly, McCracken said.
"We're now sitting at 75-year lows in the availability of cattle here in the U.S.," she said, adding that overall beef supplies are down only about 3.5%.
She attributed the gap to producers holding cattle back from expansion despite high prices, citing drought, disease risk and the multiyear nature of herd rebuilding.
"There is a three-year breeding, feeding and slaughter cycle that takes some time," McCracken said.
Pork production has also plateaued, she said, as the U.S. industry — like China and Europe — has become more efficient and needs fewer sows to produce the same volume of pork. Poultry, meanwhile, has expanded rapidly, with U.S. producers bringing more chicken to market in 2026 than some had anticipated after strong margins in recent years.
Biosecurity and disease concerns
Disease remains one of the largest wild cards across all three species, McCracken said. The beef industry is contending with the spread of New World screwworm, a pest that raises the risk of animal movement restrictions and added surveillance costs for cattle producers. The pork industry continues to manage porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS).
For poultry, she said disease pressure this spring was less severe than many in the industry had expected, though it remains an ongoing risk to productivity.
Strong but uneven consumer demand
Consumer demand for protein has been strong but uneven, McCracken said, driven in part by high interest in high-protein diets, driven partly by GLP-1 medications. She noted a sharp divide in spending power among U.S. shoppers.
"Ten percent of U.S. consumers make up 50% of food consumption," she said, "but at the same time, that other 90% is facing a lot of inflationary pressures" tied to fuel, energy and housing costs.
She said that pressure has shown up most clearly in pork, where bacon demand fell sharply this spring as fast-food chains scaled back breakfast offerings and value-menu pricing pushed bacon off sandwiches. Chicken wings have also struggled to fully recover, a trend McCracken linked to declining alcohol consumption and younger consumers moving away from traditional bar food. Dark meat, by contrast, has been a bright spot, with growing food service and retail demand.
Trade challenges and opportunities
Export markets remain a critical, if increasingly uncertain, outlet for U.S. protein, McCracken said. She pointed to the lapsed United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and ongoing trade tension with China as key risks, particularly given how much U.S. ham exports depend on Mexico's processed meat sector.
China's poultry sector poses a longer-term competitive threat, she said, as the country shifts production away from pork and toward chicken.
"This year, year to date, we're sitting at 10% more chicken in China," McCracken said, calling the shift a structural change in Chinese diets that also has implications for global trade as China exports more cooked chicken product into Europe and Southeast Asia.
She said limited U.S. poultry export exposure — about 14% of total demand, compared with nearly one-third for pork — has so far insulated the industry from some of the volatility affecting other proteins, though it also limits an outlet for surplus dark-meat production.
Cautious industry
McCracken described 2026 as an unusually difficult year to forecast for producers across the protein sector, citing swings in demand, supply disruptions and trade policy uncertainty.
"It's been a very difficult year when we think about forecasting some of the supply challenges that might happen," she said. "It's been a challenging year to forecast demand when we think about how strong it started off and maybe where we are today."
That uncertainty, she said, is making producers reluctant to invest in future capacity — a dynamic she called a concern as a lender to the industry and as an analyst tracking future protein demand. Still, she said chicken remains well positioned given its cost competitiveness and alignment with consumer trends toward healthier, more balanced diets.
