Early into 2015, analysts are predicting what corn prices will do this year. Todd Hultman, a DTN analyst, and economists at the University of Illinois take a look at the future of corn prices.
Hultman points to a historical relationship between December corn prices and the previous year’s cost of production as estimated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). He says December corn historically trades higher than its previous year’s cost of production, excluding land, and a 50 percent premium above that cost.
According to Hultman, for 2014, USDA estimates a cost $516.61 to produce an acre of corn, not including the cost of land; $516.61 an acre divided by USDA’s estimated yield of 173.4 bushels results in a cost per bushel of $2.98. USDA’s yield estimate may change in the Jan. 12 WASDE report, and their cost estimates will be updated on May 15. But until then, $2.98 is the estimated minimum price for December corn in 2015 and $4.47 is the estimated maximum.
Meanwhile, University of Illinois economists are discussing whether the new low level of corn, soybean and wheat prices means the “new era” in grain prices that began in late 2006 has come to an end.
Corn: History Provides Map to 2015 Prices – DTN
U of Illinois Economists: Can One Monster Crop End the New Era of Grain Prices?