From WATTAgNet:

Rabobank’s recent global outlook for ag commodities including corn and soybeans in 2015 focuses on demand, supply and prices.

Rabobank says lower price levels should encourage consumption growth. The report says key variables include U.S. dollar strength, uncertain Chinese demand growth, slowing biofuel demand, and oil price weakness.

“2015 will be another interesting year for agri commodities,” said Stefan Vogel, global head of Rabobank Agri Commodities Markets Research. “Macro drivers remain very much in play and price swings from supply and demand shocks are still likely, given that the stocks for most commodities are not yet at levels necessary to provide an adequate buffer.”

Rabobank says farmer selling and planting decisions, global demand and weather-related production risks will remain key drivers through 2015. If growing conditions are normal, the report says moderate increases in demand will allow stocks to build for most commodities through 2015.

The report also says projected lower prices through 2015 can provide a great incentive for consumption to exceed the forecast levels, particularly in China.

On the supply side, weather-related production abnormalities are expected to affect commodity prices. Weather threats in 2015, including El Nino, could cause prices to diverge from Rabobank’s base case.