US wheat ending stocks projected up for 2012–2013

Global supplies up overall due to US, Australia, Russia, EU-27 numbers

Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012–2013 have been raised 50 million bushels, reflecting lower prospects for exports again in December, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.  

Projected exports have been lowered 50 million bushels, reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and higher expected competition from foreign supplies. U.S. exports are projected at 45 million bushels lower for hard red winter wheat, 10 million bushels lower for soft red winter wheat and 5 million bushels lower for hard red spring wheat, according to the report. White wheat export estimates have been raised 10 million bushels. The projected 2012–2013 season-average farm price for all wheat has been lowered 10 cents at the midpoint, and the range has been narrowed to $7.70 to $8.30 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2012–2013 have been projected 1.6 million tons higher as a 3.7-million-ton increase in world production more than offsets lower beginning stocks, mostly reflecting higher 2011–2012 wheat feeding for China. China wheat production for 2012–2013 has been raised 2.6 million tons based on the latest official estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics. Production estimates for Australia and Canada have been raised 1 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, also based on the latest official government estimates, according to the USDA. Partly offsetting these increases are small reductions for Brazil and EU-27.

Global wheat export numbers for 2012–2013 have been raised slightly for December. Exports have been raised 0.5 million tons each for Australia, EU-27 and India, more than offsetting the U.S. reduction. Exports have been lowered for Paraguay and Turkey, while imports have been raised for Brazil, China, Iran and Russia, but lowered again for Turkey. Global wheat feeding for 2012–2013 has been raised slightly with reductions for EU-27 and Australia more than offset by increases for China, Canada and Iran, according to the USDA report. For EU-27, higher corn imports and feeding have offset the reduction in expected wheat feed use. World wheat ending stocks for 2012–2013 have been projected 2.8 million tons higher on increases for the U.S., Australia, Russia and EU-27.