U.S. grain and feed exports for the fiscal year 2012 are forecast at $34.6 billion, up $600 million from the February forecast, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest report.
Upward revisions in wheat, rice and feeds and fodders more than offset lower corn values. Wheat is boosted nearly $500 million to $8.5 billion on sharply increased volume, although lower values are a dampening factor. The rise reflects strong shipments expected during the fourth quarter. Competition from other exporters will be limited during the summer, giving the U.S. increased market opportunities for the new crop.
The forecast export value for coarse grains is lowered $600 million to $13 billion, mostly due to corn. Corn prices are expected to weaken in the face of a record crop and greater competition, especially from Brazil. Feeds and fodders are up $300 million, primarily corn gluten feed and meal, on both volume and value, according to the USDA. Distillers dried grains are up slightly based on shipments to China in recent months. Rice exports are up $200 million to $2.1 billion on the rapid pace of sales to Northeast Asia as well as South and Central America since March. U.S. prices are higher on tighter stocks and reports of lower planted area as farmers switch to more profitable crops.
The fiscal 2012 forecast for oilseeds and products is raised $1.4 billion to $26.4 billion. Significant crop losses in South America have strengthened U.S. unit prices and raised export prospects for soybeans and soybean meal. Limited U.S. exportable supplies of soybean oil due to strong domestic demand leaves the export forecast unchanged.
For more grains information and statistics, see www.wattagnet.com/marketdata.html.