Global pork trade has shifted away from a China-driven model toward a more fragmented and regionally distributed market, according to a new report from Rabobank. As China’s share of global imports declines, competition among exporters is intensifying across a broader range of destinations. At the same time, animal health challenges, trade policies and geopolitical tensions are adding complexity and volatility to global trade flows.
Pork trade becomes more diversified as China’s influence wanes
Over the last decade, global pork trade experienced a pronounced cycle of expansion and subsequent correction. A major driver was the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in China between 2018 and 2020, which resulted in a sharp reduction in domestic pork supply and an unprecedented increase in import demand. Both volume and value increased steadily from 2016 to a peak in 2020 and 2021, when global trade volumes reached around 12 million metric tons and values approached US$35 billion. A sharp correction followed in 2022 and 2023 as China’s supply recovered from the ASF shock, with trade volumes falling to just below 10 million metric tons. Since 2024, the market has stabilized, with a modest recovery in volume and value. However, levels remain below the earlier peak, suggesting a more balanced but less buoyant global trade environment.
Trade flows have undergone significant structural changes since China’s recovery from ASF. China’s pork imports peaked around 2020 and 2021, after which domestic production rebounded rapidly, supported by the rebuilding of the sow herd and continued improvements in productivity. At the same time, China’s pork consumption growth has moderated. Weaker macroeconomic conditions have limited demand expansion and consumer preferences have gradually shifted toward alternative animal proteins such as poultry and beef.
Although China remains a major importer of pork and offal, its share of global imports declined from 43% in 2021 to 23% in 2025. The decline has been particularly pronounced in pork meat imports, where demand has structurally softened. As a result, other markets – most notably Mexico – have gained importance as leading importers of pork meat.
In 2025, oversupply in the Chinese pork market became increasingly evident, as reflected in declining prices and deteriorating producer margins. Government interventions have focused on rebalancing supply and demand; however, the adjustment process has been slow and challenging. Continued productivity gains have sustained high production levels, while weak economic conditions have weighed on demand.
Meanwhile, Southeast Asia has gained prominence as a growth market. Countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam have increased imports to compensate for ongoing disease challenges and insufficient domestic production, providing alternative outlets for major exporters. Similarly, Mexico’s pork imports have risen sharply due to domestic supply constraints, making it the world’s largest importer of pork meat (excluding offal). This growth has primarily benefited key exporting countries, including the U.S., Canada and Brazil.
Competitive dynamics are reshaping exporter positions
The EU has maintained its position as the world’s largest pork exporter, although the gap with the U.S. has gradually narrowed. Structural challenges in the EU – such as tightening environmental regulations, stricter animal welfare requirements and rising production costs – are expected to constrain growth. As a result, the EU is likely to gradually lose its leading position, with the U.S. emerging as the largest global exporter over time. However, ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China have supported European export competitiveness and temporarily slowed this shift.
Brazil’s role in global pork trade has also become increasingly entrenched. Brazilian exports expanded significantly in 2022 and 2023, driven by strong Chinese demand and a clear cost advantage. More recently, however, China’s declining import demand has prompted Brazil to actively diversify its export destinations. The Philippines has emerged as Brazil’s largest export market, with shipments rising by more than 30% in 2025, supported by strong import demand linked to domestic supply constraints and disease-related losses. This underscores Brazil’s growing success in repositioning itself toward emerging markets and reducing its dependence on China.
Animal health and geopolitics are shaping trade beyond cost competitiveness
An evolving global approach toward animal disease outbreaks
ASF was the single biggest driver of trade volatility in recent years. Although the disease has receded in China, its impact on production and trade continues to be felt elsewhere. In the Philippines, ASF is moving from a crisis phase to a more controlled stage, but it remains a structural constraint, keeping the country dependent on imports and supporting strong import demand. In Vietnam, the disease has transitioned from an epidemic to an endemic state since 2021, driving structural transformation and sustained import demand. In Europe, disease control remains a persistent challenge – particularly in eastern regions – and continues to pose a recurring risk for major exporting countries. The outbreak in Spain in November 2025 highlights the significance of such events, with substantial impacts on prices, producer margins and the overall supply-demand balance.
Although ASF is unlikely to be eradicated in the coming years, its disruptive impact on global trade is expected to gradually diminish. Importing countries such as China, the Philippines and Japan are increasingly willing to adopt regionalization approaches, allowing trade to continue from disease-free zones rather than imposing nationwide bans. This shift is helping to reduce trade volatility and preserve market access. Recent examples include the regionalization agreements between China and Spain, Japan and France and the Philippines and Poland, illustrating the growing acceptance of more flexible, risk-based trade frameworks.
The rising role of geopolitics and trade policies
Trade flows are no longer driven solely by cost competitiveness. They are also heavily influenced by policy decisions and governments’ strategic efforts to secure domestic supply. While China’s pork imports from the U.S. have gradually declined since 2020 – largely reflecting the broader reduction in imports as domestic production recovered – escalating trade tensions between the two countries have helped cement a lasting realignment of trade flows. Similarly, the antidumping tariffs imposed by China on EU pork in 2025 continue to weigh on European pork exports. And the escalation of conflict in the Middle East in early 2026 led to higher energy and freight costs while also creating significant logistical challenges for global trade. Together, these disruptions have intensified competition and further increased pressure on margins. As a result, the global market environment is increasingly characterized by recurring oversupply cycles, heightened price volatility and sustained downward pressure on exporter profitability.
Global pork exporters must adapt to a more fragmented trade landscape
Overall, global pork trade has undergone a clear structural shift from a China-driven system toward a more fragmented and diversified landscape. While China was the dominant force shaping trade flows in 2020, its rapid return to near self-sufficiency has significantly reduced its influence, even though it remains the world’s largest importer. As a result, the market has moved toward a more regionalized structure, with trade increasingly distributed across a broader set of importing markets. This transition has intensified competition among exporters and reduced the extent to which any single country can shape global trade dynamics.
This shift toward a less China-centric and more fragmented global pork trade environment has several important implications for exporters.
- First, exporters need to diversify their market exposure. With China no longer acting as the dominant demand engine, reliance on a single large destination has become riskier. Companies must build stronger positions in a broader set of markets – particularly in Southeast Asia, Latin America and other emerging import regions.
- Second, competition will intensify, putting pressure on margins. As trade flows become more dispersed, exporters increasingly compete head-to-head across multiple markets, making cost efficiency, product differentiation (e.g., cuts, offal and quality attributes) and logistics capabilities more critical.
- Third, exporters must become more agile and market-responsive. Demand shocks are now more localized and less predictable, requiring greater flexibility in redirecting volumes and adapting product mixes to different market requirements.
- Fourth, market access management is becoming a key capability. Sanitary restrictions, regionalization agreements and trade policies increasingly determine where exports can go. Exporters need strong capabilities in biosecurity, compliance and government engagement to secure and maintain access.
- Finally, exporters will increasingly need to decide whether to compete on cost leadership or value-added differentiation. Low-cost producers such as Brazil and the U.S. will focus on volume-driven growth, while higher-cost exporters, like the EU, may need to differentiate through premium segments, sustainability credentials, or value-added products.
Overall, success depends less on capturing a single dominant market and more on effective portfolio management – balancing markets, risks and product strategies in a complex global trade landscape.
