Geopolitics and seasonal conditions are shaping global beef trade flows, according to a recent RaboResearch report.
Global cattle prices keep rising as global production volumes are contracting. Imports from Brazil into the U.S. were up 25% compared with last year in the first half of 2025, but higher tariffs will have a material impact on the trade between Brazil and the U.S. In Europe, the tight market is also attracting higher imports.
Global cattle prices continue rising
Global cattle prices have all continued their rise through the second quarter.
“Northern Hemisphere countries continue to stand out at record prices,” said Angus Gidley-Baird, senior analyst – animal protein for RaboResearch. “But prices in the U.S. and Canada have moderated in recent weeks, suggesting some of the heat is going out of the market. Meanwhile, prices in Southern Hemisphere countries continue to increase. The reduced volumes of beef in the North American market, plus what appears to be a slight improvement in the Chinese market, have generated stronger demand for Southern Hemisphere beef suppliers. This demand is now flowing through to cattle prices.”
Production volumes continue contracting
Led by contractions in Europe, New Zealand and the U.S., global beef production has continued to decline into the second quarter, with total volumes down in the first half of the year. Australia and China increased production in the first half compared with 2024. RaboResearch analysts believe production is likely to continue following these trends, with an overall contraction of 2% expected for 2025.
US tariffs and trade starting to affect Brazil beef trade
The latest round of tariffs included an additional 40% on the existing 10%, and 26.4% on Brazilian beef imports. Brazil supplied a record volume of beef into the U.S. in the first half of 2025, and RaboResearch believes this additional tariff will have a material impact on the trade between Brazil and the U.S.
Nearly a month after the U.S. began applying further import tariffs on Brazilian beef, shipments remain strong in a year-over-year comparison and shipments to the U.S. have remained relatively stable even after the tariffs have taken effect.
“Projections of rising live cattle prices in Brazil for the second half of the year may explain the current appetite from American importers for Brazilian beef,” Gidley-Baird said, “but we believe the volume the U.S. imports from Brazil may drop an estimated 10,000 metric tons to 15,000 metric tons per month as we progress through the remainder of the year.”
Declining volumes from Brazil to the US lead to changes in cuts
The main challenge with declining volumes to the U.S. lies in operational adjustments at processing plants. Consumers in Brazil prefer hindquarter cuts, making the export markets a valuable outlet for processors. The U.S. is Brazil’s largest buyer of trimmings, and redirecting this volume to other markets would require changes in how cuts are processed. Markets including China, the Middle East and Egypt have historically been major importers of forequarter cuts from Brazil.
