The ongoing highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak has fundamentally altered how the U.S. navigates global poultry trade, but a decades-long investment in zoning agreements and surveillance infrastructure has kept export markets more resilient than expected.
According to John Clifford, DVM, veterinary trade policy adviser for the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council (USAPEEC) and former U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) chief veterinary officer, the trade impact has been meaningful but not catastrophic. The most significant consequences have shown up in cost and supply rather than sweeping market closures, as global protein demand continues to keep trade moving even under pressure.
"The world continues to trade as they need," Clifford said, noting that while HPAI has hurt specific markets, it has stopped well short of causing major systemic disruptions. Where trading partners with the U.S. won't accept fresh or frozen products from affected regions, cooked products typically still remain an option.
Clifford will provide updates on how the U.S. and other countries are preparing to balance methods for stamping out the virus in commercial operations while keeping export markets open at the 2026 Chicken Marketing Summit, scheduled for July 27-29, 2026 at the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida.
Registration is now open with early bird savings until May 31.
Zoning agreements are the US's strongest defense
The current outbreak looks meaningfully different from the 2014–15 event, which marked the first U.S. encounter with this H5N1 strain after it crossed the Bering Strait from Asia into North American wild bird flyways. At that time, zoning agreements that temporarily halted trade in established specific, geographically defined areas around infected premises covered only about five countries. As a result, trading partners responded by restricting imports from the entire U.S., inflicting serious economic damage to the entire industry.
The intervening decade has transformed that picture.
The U.S. now holds close to 150 zoning agreements with more than 80 countries, limiting trade restrictions to specific affected geographies rather than triggering nationwide bans. The expansion, from roughly 13 agreements by the end of the 2014–15 outbreak to nearly 150 today, reflects a deliberate, sustained diplomatic and veterinary effort.
Trade partners are urged to adopt the narrowest possible restriction zones – a 10-kilometer radius or county level – rather than state-level bans. Given the scale of states like Texas or California, state-level restrictions eliminate trade for vast volumes of product with no connection to an active outbreak. Progress is ongoing, but several key partners still zone at the state level.
Vaccine strategy stalls after early momentum
Vaccination has emerged as the most consequential and unresolved policy question facing the U.S. poultry sector. The layer and turkey industries – which have been most impacted by HPAI this outbreak – call for HPAI vaccination to be allowed, while the broiler industry has voiced concern about how it could negatively impact trade.
According to Clifford, industry advocacy groups provided the USDA with a proposed strategy in fall 2025 “on how to consider the use of vaccines in the future” that made clear the “need to make sure that trade was maintained.”
Following the strategy’s submission, USDA held numerous hearings about the vaccine guidelines with state veterinarians and industry stakeholders. A revised plan was shared with the industry advocacy groups for feedback in early 2026.
A potential factor to the delay could be that HPAI infection rates in layer hens ran lower this season than in prior years, easing the retail price spikes that had previously intensified political pressure on USDA to move quickly on vaccines. With that urgency reduced, the department appears to have downshifted, he added.
Attend the 2026 Chicken Marketing Summit
Make plans to attend the 2026 Chicken Marketing Summit, scheduled for July 27-29 at the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida.
Serving a unique cross section of the chicken supply chain, the 2026 Chicken Marketing Summit will feature the theme “The Protein Moment.” The one-of-a-kind event explores issues and trends in food marketing and consumer chicken consumption patterns and purchasing behavior.
Registration for the 2026 Chicken Marketing Summit is now open, with early bird savings until May 31. For more information, go to www.chickenmarketingsummit.com.
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