The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on May 12, forecasting, in part, the outlook for the global corn and soybean market.
The 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook
Planting and harvest
The USDA projects the 2025/26 U.S. corn crop to reach 15.8 billion bushels – a 6% increase compared to a year ago – bringing total corn supplies up to a forecast 17.3 billion bushels.
The department expects a planted area of 95.3 million acres – the country’s highest in over a decade – with a projected yield of 181.0 bushels per acre.
Use
Corn use is expected to increase by 1% compared to last year due to higher exports and domestic needs, for example, food, seed and industrial use is forecast at 6.9 billion bushels, but ethanol production is expected to use the same amount as last year at 5.5 billion bushels.
The USDA expects feed and residual use to increase as well to 5.9 billion bushels due to more supply and lower prices.
Prices
The season-average farm price for 2025/26 is projected to decrease by 15 cents per bushel at $4.20.
The 2025/26 global corn outlook
According to the report, the department expects global corn production to increase to a record 1.265 billion metric tons, attributed to increases in the U.S., Ukraine and Argentina, offset, however, by decreases in Tanzania and Canada.
The USDA also expects to see higher yield out of Brazil due to the country’s expanded corn area.
The 2025/26 U.S. soybean outlook
Planting and harvest
The U.S. soybean crop for 2025/26 is forecast to decrease to 4.34 billion bushels, which would bring supplies down by less than 1% compared to the year before.
Use
Despite the decreased crop, soybean crush is projected to increase by 70 million bushels compared to the previous year reaching an expected total of 2.49 billion bushels. Soybean meal disappearance is also expected to increase by 2% due to increased pork and poultry production.
The USDA projects an increase in domestic use of soybean oil, primarily due to biofuel production, with the industry expected to use 13.9 billion pounds of oil in 2025/26.
Price
The 2025/26 season-average soybean price is expected to increase from $9.95 per bushel in 2024/25 to $10.25 per bushel. The department also projects the price of soybean meal to increase to $310 per short ton – $10 per short ton higher than last year – and the price of soybean oil to increase to 46 cents per pound – 1 cent higher than the previous year.
The 2025/26 global soybean outlook
The USDA forecasts global soybean production to reach 426.8 million tons – a 1% percent increase – with Brazil, Paraguay, Russia and China as the biggest contributors. Countries like Canada, Argentina, Ukraine and Uruguay, however, will see decreased production alongside the U.S.
Brazil and Argentina’s soybean production is expected to increase to 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons, respectively.
The agriculture department projects 3% higher soybean crush for 2025/26 at 366.5 million tons, crediting China, the U.S., Brazil, Egypt, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Thailand and Vietnam for the increase.
