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USDA predicts largest ever corn crop in November WASDE

Report forecasts global soybean stocks will be the largest on record by the end of this season.

Corn In Husk Harvest Goran H Pixabay
GoranH |

On November 9, the USDA predicted U.S. farmers will produce the biggest-ever corn crop this year in its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Reuters reported the Chicago Board of Trade’s most-active corn futures plunged sharply on Thursday after the government predicted the massive U.S. corn crop.

Meanwhile, soybean futures slumped after the WASDE report forecast global soybean stocks will be the largest on record by the end of this season.

USDA has confirmed that exporters sold 1.7 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans last week, including more than 1 million metric tons to China, extending a wave of recent export deals.

Reuters reported on Wednesday that China had bought at least 300,000 MT of soybeans.

WHEAT: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, decreased domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks.

Supplies are raised on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 145 million, on a strong pace to date and expectations for the rest of the marketing year. Total domestic use is projected 4 million bushels lower to 1,155 million, all on a reduction in food use following the release of the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report.

  • July-September wheat used in milling is the smallest for this quarter since at least 2014 when NASS began reporting this series.

With no other changes to the U.S. balance sheet, projected ending stocks are raised 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10/bushel to $7.20 on lower expected prices for the remainder of the marketing year.

The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for increased supplies, fractionally lower consumption, less trade, and larger ending stocks. Supplies are projected up 0.6 million tons to 1,051.5 million as increased beginning stocks more than offset a decline in global production. World production is lowered 1.5 million tons to 782.0 million on decreases to many countries including India, Argentina, Kazakhstan, the United Kingdom and Brazil.

The decrease for production in India is based on revised government estimates. In Argentina, production is forecast 1.5 million tons lower to 15.0 million as rains in October were too late to benefit the crop in Cordoba and Santa Fe. These production declines are partially offset by a 5.0-million-ton increase in the forecast for Russia, up to 90.0 million, based on near-final harvest data from the Ministry of Agriculture that indicates more harvested area and higher yields.

The global forecast for trade is lowered 1.3 million tons to 205.0 million, primarily on lower exports from Argentina, India, and Egypt that are only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. Projected global ending stocks are raised 0.6 million tons to 258.7 million, with larger forecasts for Russia, China and Argentina more than offsetting declines for India, Ukraine and Brazil.    

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, domestic use, exports and ending stocks.

Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 170 million from last month on a 1.9-bushel increase in yield to 174.9 bushels/acre. With larger supplies, feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion and corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5.3 billion.

Exports are raised 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion.

  • The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.85/ bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast up 4.8 million tons to 1,499.3 million. This month’s 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, trade and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for Ukraine, Russia, Burma and Paraguay are partly offset by declines for Mexico, Egypt and Indonesia.

Corn production for Ukraine and Russia is raised based on harvest results to date. Mexico production is lowered reflecting a reported decline in summer corn area. Foreign barley production is raised as higher production for Russia, Ukraine and India are partly offset by reductions for Argentina, the EU and Türkiye.

Major global trade changes include larger corn exports for the U.S., Russia, Türkiye, Ukraine and Paraguay. Corn imports are raised for Canada, Egypt, Mexico, the EU and Saudi Arabia but lowered for Iran and Bangladesh. Barley exports are raised for Ukraine but lowered for Argentina. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine, Paraguay and China that are partly offset by a decline for Iran. Global corn ending stocks, at 315.0 million tons, are up 2.6 million.

OILSEEDS: The U.S. soybean outlook for 2023/24 includes increased production and ending stocks.

Soybean production is forecast at 4.13 billion bushels, up 25 million on higher yields. The largest production changes are for Wisconsin, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Dakota and Ohio. With crush and exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks are raised to 245 million bushels.

  • The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.90/bushel, unchanged from last month.
  • The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 61 cents/pound.
  • The soybean meal price is unchanged at $380/short ton.

The global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecast includes lower beginning stocks, higher production, higher crush and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are reduced 1.6 million tons, reflecting offsetting back-year balance sheet revisions for China and Brazil.

China’s beginning stocks are reduced on lower soybean imports for 2021/22 and 2022/23 and higher crush for 2022/23. Conversely, Brazil’s beginning stocks are increased on a larger 2022/23 crop of 158 million tons due to higher-than-expected use to date.

Global 2023/24 soybean production is raised 0.9 million tons to 400.4 million, mainly on higher production for Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. Global soybean crush is raised on higher crush for China and Russia. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 1.1 million tons as higher stocks for Brazil and the US. are more than offset by lower stocks for China.    

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