New data shows California’s Proposition 12, which was partially implemented on July 1, 2023, has raised pork prices for consumers and decreased pork sales volumes in the state.
Economists from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Office of the Chief Economist said their analysis of preliminary data shows pork prices of products in California that are affected by Prop 12 rose, on average, 20% after July 1, 2023, with pork loins experiencing the largest increase, up 41%.
Products that are not affected by the law did not see a significant price change.
“Our analysis of preliminary data indicates that retail pork prices for Prop 12 covered products rose in California relative to those in the rest of the United States by large percentage amounts even before full enforcement of the regulations, which began on January 1, 2024,” the report said.
California’s share of national fresh pork consumption fell from 10% to 8% as of January.
“Looking ahead, uncertainty remains regarding the long-term impact on California's pork market,” the report said. “Initial market disruptions and potential supply limitations for compliant pork warrant further monitoring and analysis.”
Prop 12 establishes minimum space requirements based on square feet for breeding pigs, veal calves and egg-laying hens, and bans the sale of meat and eggs from those animals when they are raised in a way that does not comply with the minimum requirements. Prop 12 withstood legal challenges, when the Supreme Court ruled in May 2023 to uphold the law. It was fully implemented January 1.
“NPPC has fought against California Prop 12 since 2018, when it was put on the state’s ballot for approval, arguing among other things that it would increase consumer prices for pork,” The National Pork Producers Council said in response to the findings. “Along with the American Farm Bureau Federation, NPPC even challenged Prop 12 in federal courts, including the U.S. Supreme Court. NPPC continues to work with members of Congress on a solution to the problems created by the law.”
The analysis used Circana retail scanner data.
