Paul Aho Paul Aho, Ph.D., is owner of Poultry Perspective and economist and consultant. To contact Aho, email paulaho@paulaho.com.From the AuthorPoultrySoybean demand slowing as ‘China effect’ recedesWith a slowdown imminent in the rate of increase in animal protein in China, the rate at which imports of soybeans grows is also about to slow down. Instead of growing at 5 million metric tons per year, it can be expected that the rate of increase will be falling. Over the next several years a much lower average growth of perhaps 2 or 3 million metric tons can be expected.Business & MarketsUnderstanding the fundamental ethanol problemRecently, a significant portion of the unsustainable corn grain in the U.S. has been mandated to be transformed into ethanol ostensibly to reduce the use of fossil fuels. Alas, it does not.HomeHigh corn prices are their own long-term cureCorn producers outside the US are coming to the rescue of the long-suffering poultry and livestock industry and being handsomely rewarded with high prices … for now.PoultryWorldwide chicken, pork consumption forecast to continue increasingWorldwide chicken, pork consumption forecast to continue increasing POULTRY PERSPECTIVE Chicken consumption is predicted to increase faster than that of pork worldwide, but chicken still has decades to go before catching up to pork consumption levels. Paul Aho, Ph.D., Poultry Perspective, Storrs, CT 062HomeUS boneless, skinless chicken breast industry continues to growFrom an industry that produced mostly whole and cut-up bone-in chicken in the 1980s it transformed itself into the boneless skinless breast industry. From a few hundred million pounds in 1985, production of boneless skinless breast soared to 6 billion pounds in 2010 and shows no signs of slowing down even in the face of punishingly low prices.PoultryForeign crop farmers may help rescue US poultry profitabilityForeign crop farmers' response to a 200% increase in the price of corn is having a predictable effect on total world production. Next year, corn production outside the U.S. is likely to reach 600 MMT, a 100 MMT increase. The resulting impact on the world price of corn next year is predictable but might surprise U.S. crop farmers.HomeCorn supply scenarios for 2011-12 show no cushion for droughtCorn supply scenarios for 2011-12 are sobering, and there’s no cushion for drought, with little to no corn available above pipeline levels – the amount of corn needed to keep the marketing chain of corn working. If a drought like that of 1988 were to happen in this crop year, corn yield would drop to 125 bushels.Animal Feed ManufacturingThe grain crisis of 2011The grain crisis of 2011 appears likely to eclipse the severity of the 2008 event, but in a different way. In 2008, prices spiked to punishingly high levels that led to a short lived panic followed by plummeting grain prices.Page 1 of 1
